Post #2, Have Farmland Values Appreciated in 2025? The Cornbelt and Delta

CORN BELT

The Corn Belt in the US boasts the highest long term returns in the NCREIF membership portfolio. It also has the highest variation in returns. Staying true to form, after an annualized appreciation rate of close to 22% in Q4 2022 (red line), year-on-year Cornbelt appreciation went negative in Q4 2024, meaning the corn belt properties lost value of the course of the year.

Quarter-over-quarter remained negative in Q1 and Q2 this year but recovered in Q3 for a 0.082% gain (rounded to 0.1% in the graphic). So, for Q1 through Q3 this year we have (-1.063)%, (-0.212)%, and +0.082% for a total of (-1.193)%. Therefore, we would need a Q4 2025 gain of at least +1.193% just to offset and zero out the losses we’ve seen thus far.

Put us down for the Corn Belt showing a slight loss in value in 2025, but if the recent Q3 positive return means we have turned the corner, and if trade deals with China hold, or South America has a bad crop, the current downward correction cycle may not be as bad as 2015 through 2017.

Meanwhile in the Delta, the story is a bit more positive. After having peaked at a little over 9% in Q3 2022, the year-on-year figure held at about 0.6% to the good for two consecutive quarters. For the year however, quarter over quarter numbers are -0.214%, 0.265% and         -0.192% (rounded to -0.2% in the graphic) for a total so far this year of -0.141%. The quarterly figure (blue line) has been bouncing back and forth from negative to positive since Q3 of last year.

We’ll have to see a Q4 quarter over quarter gain of at least 0.141% to offset the losses we’ve seen thus far in 2025 and avoid a slight value loss.

Unhelpfully, the Delta has arguably had the biggest financial losses in US Row Crops when rice and cotton are factored in, making lease renewal negotiations difficult from the landowner perspective. We’re handicapping the odds for a loss or gain in 2025 as even-money.

In our next post, we’ll have a look at California and the Pacific Northwest, which look like very different worlds.