Have Farmland Values Appreciated in 2025?

As we approach year end (where did 2025 go?) we are watching NCREIF Row Crop farmland returns, particularly the appreciation rates, to see if it can maintain its record farmland price values in the face of the low commodity prices and other agricultural headwinds we have seen this year. Below we discuss the status through Q3 of returns in the US Row Crop Farmland. We’ll follow up with the Corn Belt, Delta, Pacific Northwest and California regions.

The chart below shows NCREIF Row Crop value changes for each quarter from 2010 to Q3 2025. The blue line shows the quarter-on-quarter gain or loss of value vs the previous quarter. The red line sums the current and previous three quarters to give us an annualized year-over-year return.

The first chart is for Row Crop Farmland for the US as a whole. After a ten-year peak of just over 10% in Q3 2022, Q3 2025 came in at an annualized increase of value of 0.7% over Q3 2024, holding more or less steady vs Q2 after reduced rates of increase each quarter since 2022. But as of this quarter, NCREIF US Row Crop Farmland is still gaining value, despite low crop prices.

Have we reached the bottom of the return rates (and thus the market), or might we see a negative return in Q4 that wipes out this year’s gains? First, notice on the blue line we often see big changes in Q4 vs other quarters. This is likely because many of the NCREIF reporting members have their properties appraised each year and then usually make necessary reporting adjustments to their reported values in Q4. There is also often a rush to close deals by year that could affect values.

Because the annualized figure is the sum of the current and previous three quarters, we can add up the first three 2025 quarters’ figures to gauge where we are thus far, which are 0.036%, 0.255% and 0.132% for a total of 0.423% gain in value. So, if the Q4 figure is at least as high as (-0.423)% (which would zero out our .423% gain thus far this year), US Row Crop land will not show a year end loss of value. Given that the quarterly figures have bounced just above zero for the previous five quarters, being at zero or having a small increase seems likely.

Specific regions, however, might be another story. We’ll dive into the Cornbelt and the Delta regions next.